DEPPON(603056) 国联证券·2024-07-16 02:00Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage with a target price of 13.13 yuan [43]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the mid-to-high-end large parcel express market, with significant growth potential in the less concentrated LTL (Less Than Truckload) transportation industry. The integration of resources with JD Logistics is expected to enhance business scale and profitability [33][41]. - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, with a projected revenue of 418.53 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.36% [22][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a leader in the large parcel express industry for over 20 years, with a business structure driven by both express and freight services. It has seen a significant increase in revenue from express services, which grew at a CAGR of 24.6% from 2017 to 2022 [31][62]. Industry Analysis - The LTL transportation market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the overall market size reaching 1.67 trillion yuan in 2023 and projected to increase to 1.80 trillion yuan by 2027. The market is currently characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for the company to benefit from industry consolidation [39][68]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 7.5 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The revenue for the same year was 362.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.6% [64][61]. Growth Strategy - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through a direct management model and focusing on cost control, which has led to a reduction in management expense ratios from 8.86% in 2021 to 4.19% in early 2024 [40][41]. - The integration with JD Logistics is expected to create synergies that will boost business scale and profitability, leveraging JD's strengths in warehouse and distribution network [33][41]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 418.53 billion yuan, 478.95 billion yuan, and 535.35 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 10.54 billion yuan, 13.90 billion yuan, and 16.50 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [22][35].