美银：基金经理调查

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment stance with a Bull & Bear Indicator at 6.3, suggesting a cautious outlook on equities [1]. Core Insights - Global growth expectations have significantly declined, with a net 27% of investors anticipating a weaker economy over the next 12 months, marking a notable drop from previous months [12][46]. - Despite the pessimism regarding growth, 68% of investors believe in a "soft landing" for the economy, while only 11% foresee a "hard landing" [7][12]. - The cash level among fund managers has increased to 4.1%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [3][39]. Summary by Sections Growth Expectations - Global growth expectations have fallen sharply, with net 27% of investors expecting a weaker economy, driven by a negative outlook on US growth [12][46]. - 67% of investors do not expect a global recession in the next 12 months, although this is a slight decrease from 73% in June [14]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - 39% of investors view current monetary policy as "too restrictive," the highest level since November 2008, which contributes to expectations of falling interest rates over the next year [5][17]. - 87% of investors anticipate lower rates, with 62% predicting at least three cuts by the Federal Reserve within the next 12 months [1][17]. Asset Allocation - Fund managers are overweight in stocks (net 33%) and underweight in bonds (net -9%), with a notable shift towards utilities for the first time since February 2009 [1][23]. - There has been a significant reduction in exposure to Eurozone equities, with a drop of 20 percentage points month-over-month, marking the largest decline since July 2022 [21][86]. Crowded Trades and Investor Sentiment - The "Long Magnificent 7" trade is identified as the most crowded, with 71% of investors participating, indicating a strong consensus on this investment strategy [24][38]. - Geopolitical conflict has emerged as the top tail risk, overtaking higher inflation, with 26% of investors citing it as their primary concern [15][36]. Sector and Regional Allocations - Investors have increased their allocation to utilities and US equities while reducing exposure to Eurozone equities and real estate, which is at its lowest allocation since January 2009 [33][69]. - The allocation to emerging market equities has risen to a net 9% overweight, reflecting a shift in regional preferences [86].