汇丰：宏观：地产边际转好企稳

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the property market, suggesting signs of improvement in new home sales due to recent easing policies [1][2]. Core Insights - New home sales in June showed a month-on-month increase of 36%, with sales reaching RMB 439 billion, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 17% from 34% in May [1]. - High-frequency data indicates a 23% month-on-month increase in new home sales across 30 major cities, with second-hand home sales in Tier-1 cities rising by 117% compared to the 2020-2023 average [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to implement new monetary tools to stabilize the bond market and support economic growth [5]. - Fiscal reforms are anticipated to better balance responsibilities between central and local governments, with a focus on consumption tax reforms [5]. Summary by Sections Property Market - Home sales improved in June due to seasonal factors and easing policies, with significant increases in both new and second-hand home sales [1][2]. - The average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.73% month-on-month in June, indicating a continued price slump [1]. Monetary Policy - The PBoC's recent meeting maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance, with a focus on effective implementation of existing structural tools [2][5]. - New tools are expected to be rolled out to enhance monetary policy effectiveness, including a re-lending tool for affordable housing [2]. Fiscal Policy - A new round of fiscal and tax system reforms is expected, particularly regarding the distribution of consumption taxes between central and local governments [5]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special government bonds to stimulate domestic demand [5]. Foreign Investment - New measures to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing and service sectors are set to be introduced [5]. - The list of industries encouraged for foreign investment will continue to expand, improving the convenience for foreign personnel working in China [5].