社服与消费视角点评6月国内宏观数据：二季度经济表现平稳，六月社零增速小幅回落

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [17] Core Viewpoints - The second quarter economic performance was stable, with a slight decline in June retail sales growth. The total retail sales in June reached 4.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.0%. The GDP for the second quarter was 32.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, slightly below market expectations. The per capita disposable income for residents in the first half of the year was 20,733 yuan, with a real year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][2][3] - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating due to the overall stable economic operation and the recovery of service-related consumption. The total retail sales for the first half of the year reached 235,969 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1][3] - Consumer confidence still has significant recovery potential, with summer travel consumption expected to catalyze growth. The consumer confidence index for May was 86.40, showing a slight decline but indicating room for long-term recovery [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Performance - The second quarter GDP was 32.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%. The total GDP for the first half of the year was 61.68 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1][2] - June retail sales totaled 40,732 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.0%. Retail sales excluding automobiles reached 36,364 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1][3] Consumer Behavior - The per capita disposable income for residents was 20,733 yuan, with a real year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The per capita consumption expenditure was 13,601 yuan, with a real year-on-year growth of 6.7%, indicating that consumption growth outpaced income growth [1][3] - Service consumption continued to recover, with service retail sales growing year-on-year by 7.5% and restaurant income growing by 7.9% [1][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in travel and business consumption, including tourism service providers and those in the hospitality sector [1][3]