【专家观点】碳交易、碳金融和碳价格轨迹 - CEEX

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the carbon trading industry Core Insights - The carbon trading system is crucial for achieving peak carbon emissions goals, with a focus on cap and trade mechanisms [3][4] - A better price discovery mechanism is needed under the peak carbon emissions goal to stabilize carbon prices and facilitate low-cost emission reductions [6][9] - The relationship between national and regional carbon markets is defined by two stages: establishing pilot markets and transitioning to a comprehensive national market [7][8] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control and Trading - The carbon emission intensity control system must align with the 2030 peak emissions goal, emphasizing the importance of total carbon emission control [3] - The cap allowance control mechanism will play a central role in achieving carbon peak targets [3] Price Discovery Mechanism - Allowance auctions can provide clear price signals to kickstart the market and stabilize prices once the market matures [5] - International experiences suggest that carbon futures are essential for price signal discovery and low-cost emission reductions, with the EU carbon market's futures trading significantly surpassing spot trading [6] National and Regional Market Relationship - The current regulatory framework indicates no new regional carbon markets will be established, focusing instead on enhancing existing ones to support regional carbon reduction [7] - The first stage involved establishing pilot carbon markets, while the second stage aims to create experimental markets that align with new carbon peak and neutrality goals [7] Future Carbon Market Development - Transitioning to a carbon market with a cap assessment system will allow for effective alignment of provincial peak targets and optimize carbon allocation [8] - Establishing a market with improved price discovery and stabilization mechanisms is crucial for guiding long-term low-carbon investments [9] - The carbon market should develop in coordination with other energy and environmental policies to ensure comprehensive effectiveness [9]