2024年二季度及6月经济数据点评：负产出缺口再度扩大

Economic Performance - In Q2, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter, and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%[93] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was only 0.7%, significantly lower than the previous quarter's 1.5% and below the potential growth rate of 1.2%-1.3%[107][108] - The negative output gap has widened again, primarily due to a slowdown in the tertiary sector, which is the main drag on GDP growth[107][111] Consumer Behavior - In June, retail sales showed a slight decline of 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.7%[59][88] - Consumer spending on essential goods continued to rise, while discretionary spending, particularly on daily goods and real estate-related items, saw a significant drop[31][100] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment rebounded in June, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5%, up from 0.5% in May, driven by a notable rise in manufacturing investment (+5.3%) and infrastructure investment (+17.6%)[48][66][123] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a month-on-month drop of 2.8% in June, reflecting high inventory levels among households and real estate companies[125] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, consistent with the previous month, indicating a steady employment situation in major cities[73][130] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall view remains that a new economic cycle in China is likely to support moderate recovery in the future[78][132]