Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Foods [12][20][13] Core Views - The carbonated beverage business is currently under pressure, with expected revenue decline in the first half of 2024. The retail price of 500ml PET bottles increased by 17% in the second half of 2023, impacting sales volume and market share [11][17] - Revenue is projected to improve in the second half of 2024 due to price increases from competitors like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, which may help restore market share [11][17] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable in 2024, with controllable expense ratios due to effective cost management strategies [18][19] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Expected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 20.44 billion, 21.19 billion, and 22.00 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -4.7%, +3.7%, and +3.7% [12][20] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 770 million, 830 million, and 860 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.28, 0.29, and 0.31 yuan per share [12][20] Dividend and Valuation - The company has a high dividend yield of 5.68%, with a consistent dividend payout ratio over the past few years, making it an attractive investment in a weak macroeconomic environment [19][20] - The target price remains unchanged at HK$3.54, based on a 11x PE valuation for 2025 [12][20]
中国食品：碳酸业务阶段性承压，低估值高股息值得关注