苏轴股份：公司深度报告：国内滚针轴承龙头，汽车+机器人打开成长空间

Company Overview - Suzhou Bearing Co Ltd (苏轴股份) is a leading domestic manufacturer of needle roller bearings, with over 60 years of experience in the industry [9][20] - The company's products are widely used in automotive, industrial automation, robotics, aerospace, and other fields [9][121] - In 2023, Suzhou Bearing achieved revenue of 636 37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 96%, and net profit of 124 18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48 34% [26] - The company's gross profit margin reached 36 67% in 2023, an increase of 3 8 percentage points year-on-year [26] Industry Analysis - The global bearing market size was approximately 134 billion USD in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 8 3% from 2023 to 2030 [100] - China accounts for about 30% of the global bearing market, making it the largest market worldwide [114] - The automotive sector is the largest downstream application for bearings, accounting for 43% of domestic bearing usage in 2023 [21] - The domestic bearing industry is characterized by low concentration, with CR6 at 24 1% and CR10 at 28% in 2022 [101] Growth Drivers - The company is benefiting from the national policy of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement, which is expected to drive demand in multiple downstream sectors [31] - Suzhou Bearing has successfully entered the high-growth robotics sector, with its products used in key components such as reducers and lead screws [44] - The company has broken foreign technology monopolies in several automotive bearing projects, including engine balance shaft systems and intelligent steering systems [63] - Overseas business expansion is progressing well, with overseas revenue accounting for 42 3% of total revenue in 2023 and overseas gross margin reaching 41 7%, 8 7 percentage points higher than domestic [42] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 769 21 million yuan in 2024, 935 34 million yuan in 2025, and 1 129 79 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 20 87%, 21 60%, and 20 79% respectively [26] - Net profit is projected to reach 144 95 million yuan in 2024, 178 97 million yuan in 2025, and 219 73 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 16 73%, 23 47%, and 22 77% respectively [26] - EPS is expected to be 1 07 yuan in 2024, 1 32 yuan in 2025, and 1 62 yuan in 2026 [26] Valuation - Using relative valuation methods, the company's reasonable valuation range is 19 80-21 12 yuan per share [49] - FCFF valuation suggests a reasonable price range of 15 28-20 13 yuan per share [57] - The final reasonable valuation range is determined to be 19 80-20 13 yuan per share, with a "Recommend" rating [12]