国际航空产业链困局下的中国制造机遇浅析

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the international aviation industry [1]. Core Insights - The international aviation transport demand is continuously recovering, with a strong growth forecast for the coming years, particularly in international markets [4]. - The supply chain for international aviation manufacturing is facing significant bottlenecks, making it difficult to restore peak supply capabilities in the short term [6]. - The backlog of aircraft orders is substantial, indicating a growing demand that exceeds current supply capabilities [8][11]. Demand Side Summary - The global aviation passenger market showed a year-on-year growth of 10.7% in total capacity and 14.6% in international market demand as of May 2024 [4]. - The total capacity is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) projected to increase by 11.6% [4]. Supply Side Summary - The production capacity of OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) has dropped to historical lows, with Boeing and Airbus delivering an average of only 83 aircraft per month in the first half of 2024, which is significantly below the peak capacity of 62 aircraft per month in 2018 [6]. - Multiple factors are hindering the recovery of the supply chain, including workforce shortages due to pandemic-related layoffs, regulatory investigations affecting Boeing's production, and ongoing issues with engine suppliers [6][13]. Order Backlog Summary - As of May 2024, Boeing and Airbus have a combined backlog of over 14,000 aircraft, with narrow-body aircraft orders taking approximately 9.5 years to fulfill at current production rates [8][11]. - The order-to-delivery ratio has increased to 2.70, indicating a trend of heightened demand for aircraft, particularly narrow-body models like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 [11]. Airbus and Boeing Delivery Outlook - Airbus has revised its 2024 delivery target from 800 to 770 aircraft due to ongoing supply chain issues, with a significant portion of its production constrained by engine supply challenges [13]. - Boeing's deliveries have also been impacted, with a 70% year-on-year decline in total orders and only 175 aircraft delivered in the first half of 2024 [18].