国防军工：国际航空产业链困局下的中国制造机遇浅析

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The international aviation manufacturing supply chain is currently facing significant bottlenecks despite a recovery in demand [10] - The demand for international air transport continues to recover, with a projected growth of 10.4% in total capacity for 2024 [12] - The supply side is struggling to restore peak production capacity, with OEM deliveries at historical lows [16] - There is a notable backlog of aircraft orders, with Boeing and Airbus having a combined backlog of over 14,000 aircraft [19] - The aircraft supply-demand imbalance is intensifying, with an order-to-delivery ratio of 2.70 as of Q1 2024 [22] - Airbus has adjusted its delivery targets for 2024 down to 770 aircraft due to ongoing supply chain issues [24] - Boeing's total orders and deliveries have significantly declined, with a 70% drop in orders in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [30] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The global air passenger market saw a 10.7% year-on-year increase in capacity in May 2024, with international demand growing by 14.6% [12] - The total revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is expected to grow by 11.6% year-on-year in 2024 [12] Supply Side - Boeing and Airbus's combined monthly aircraft deliveries in the first half of 2024 were at their third-lowest level in a decade, at an average of 83 aircraft [16] - The supply chain has not recovered as expected due to various factors, including labor shortages and regulatory investigations affecting Boeing [16][27] - The backlog for narrow-body aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320 is projected to take 9.5 years to fulfill based on current production rates [19] Order and Delivery Dynamics - The order-to-delivery ratio for narrow-body aircraft is significantly higher than the overall ratio, indicating a more pronounced supply-demand imbalance [22] - Airbus has reduced its 2024 delivery target from 800 to 770 aircraft due to supply chain constraints [24] - Boeing's total orders in the first half of 2024 were only 156, a 70% decrease from the previous year, with deliveries at 175 aircraft [30] Engine Supply Chain Issues - The aviation engine market is currently a bottleneck in the supply chain, with significant impacts from geopolitical factors affecting titanium supply [34] - The PW engine issue is expected to result in an average of 350 aircraft being grounded annually for inspections, similar to the impact of supply chain failures [36] Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturing - There are emerging opportunities for Chinese manufacturers to capture demand that cannot be met by Western aviation manufacturers due to their current constraints [38]