2024年中国无人驾驶商用车应用分析：多场景落地，技术革新引领行业新篇章

Industry Overview - The autonomous commercial vehicle industry in China has experienced rapid growth, with the market size increasing from 27.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 108.8 billion yuan in 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.6% [4] - The industry is divided into high-speed scenarios (e.g., logistics) and low-speed scenarios (e.g., ports, mining areas, and urban sanitation), with L4-level autonomous driving technology driving commercialization in specific scenarios [5] - The core of the industry lies in upstream components and systems, particularly in the development of sensors such as cameras and radar [5][24] Market Size and Growth - The autonomous commercial vehicle market in China is projected to reach 1.4492 trillion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 67.8% [6] - By 2030, China aims to achieve a 20% penetration rate of L4 and L5 autonomous vehicles in total vehicle sales [6] - The market size for autonomous commercial vehicles in ports is expected to grow from 2 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.4 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 66.2% [48] - The mining area autonomous commercial vehicle market is projected to grow from 1.49 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.45 billion yuan by 2028 [56] Key Segments and Applications - In port logistics, autonomous vehicles account for 55% of automated transport solutions, with over 1,000 autonomous vehicles operational in Chinese ports as of November 2023 [7][44] - In mining areas, autonomous vehicles are predominantly used in coal mines, accounting for over 60% of the market, with approximately 1,100 autonomous mining vehicles in operation by the end of 2023 [7][52] - In mainline logistics, L3-level autonomous commercial vehicles are currently the primary focus, with L4 and L5 vehicles expected to see increased adoption in the future [7][62] Technological and Policy Drivers - The development of autonomous commercial vehicles is driven by advancements in core components, such as cameras and radar, with the global average number of cameras per vehicle expected to increase from 1.5 in 2018 to 3 by 2023 [28] - Policy support, including the "Smart Networked Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0," aims to enhance vehicle intelligence and promote the large-scale application of autonomous vehicles by 2030 [6][29] - The expansion of C-V2X (Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything) technology is expected to play a crucial role in the development of autonomous driving, with a target of 50% new vehicle penetration by 2025 [41] Representative Companies - Sinian Zhijia (斯年智驾): Specializes in port logistics, with 220 autonomous vehicles deployed across 8 ports by the end of 2023, achieving full-time autonomous operations without the need for drivers or safety personnel [68][69] - Tage Zhixing (踏歌智行): A leader in mining area autonomous driving, with a 45.1% market share and over 400 autonomous mining vehicles in operation as of 2022 [70][71] - Zhitu Technology (挚途科技): Focuses on multiple scenarios, including smart sanitation, factory logistics, and mainline logistics, with over 3,000 kilometers of autonomous operation in logistics by the end of 2023 [74][76] Future Trends - Autonomous commercial vehicles in ports are expected to expand into semi-closed scenarios, with a focus on reducing initial investment costs and increasing overseas market penetration [49] - In mining areas, the industry is moving towards more refined management and deeper integration with smart mining systems, with the potential for additional unmanned equipment such as bulldozers and excavators [57] - In mainline logistics, the adoption of L4 and L5 autonomous vehicles is expected to increase, with a focus on convoy driving modes and cross-regional centralized management to improve efficiency and reduce costs [63][64]