Global Vision第14期：“首次降息”的历史背景与资产规律

Group 1 - The current economic environment in the US and China is similar to that of 2019, characterized by a resilient US economy and a weak recovery in China, which may limit the space for short-term interest rate cuts [2][3][24] - The nature of the current monetary easing is likely to be a "preventive" rate cut aimed at achieving a "soft landing," as indicated by the recent trends in labor market data and economic indicators [8][22] - Historical data shows that in the context of preventive rate cuts, equity markets tend to perform well in the months following the cut, particularly in emerging markets, while commodities like gold and silver may face pressure [9][18][27] Group 2 - The report highlights that the current monetary and credit conditions in China are relatively loose, but the M2 growth rate is declining, indicating a complex economic backdrop [3][25] - The analysis of the Merrill Lynch clock suggests that the current economic cycle in both the US and China is at a stage where preventive measures are necessary to mitigate potential downturns [25] - The report emphasizes that the performance of various asset classes, including equities and commodities, will be influenced by the type of rate cut implemented, with preventive cuts historically leading to better outcomes for equities compared to emergency or recessionary cuts [16][18][27]