专题报告：中共二十届三中全会的宏观解读、股市影响及行业分析

Capital Market Reforms - The Third Plenum proposed improving the coordination between investment and financing functions in the capital market, emphasizing risk prevention and strong regulation to promote stable development[1] - The capital market will focus on attracting long-term funds, enhancing the quality of listed companies, and strengthening delisting mechanisms[1] - The Shanghai Main Board A-share turnover rate was nearly 100% in H1 2024, indicating short-term trading behavior, while the STAR Market A-share turnover rate was 188%, reflecting a lack of high-quality long-term investment options[38] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive interest rate cut, with the 7-day reverse repo rate adjusted from 1.80% to 1.70%, and the 1-year and 5-year LPR rates reduced to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively[6] - The interest rate cut aims to support economic growth, as Q2 2024 GDP growth slowed to 4.7% year-on-year[6] Real Estate Sector Reforms - The Third Plenum proposed cautious advancement of property tax reforms, with the pace depending on the recovery of the real estate market[5] - The government plans to reform the pre-sale system for commercial housing and promote the sale of completed properties[5] - In H1 2024, new residential sales amounted to 4.127 trillion yuan, with an average price of 10,288 yuan per square meter, highlighting affordability challenges[38] Private Sector Support - The private sector contributes over 50% of tax revenue, 60% of GDP, 70% of technological innovation, 80% of urban employment, and 90% of the total number of enterprises[13] - The government will support private enterprises in leading national major technological projects and open up national research infrastructure to private firms[8][9] Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The Third Plenum proposed shifting the consumption tax collection process to local governments, which could help alleviate fiscal pressures caused by declining land sales revenue[22] - In 2023, domestic consumption tax revenue reached 1.6118 trillion yuan, and in the first five months of 2024, it was 760.7 billion yuan[22] Technological and Industrial Development - The government will focus on developing strategic industries such as new-generation information technology, AI, aerospace, new energy, and advanced materials[15][16] - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund III in May 2024 aims to support the semiconductor industry[53] Digital Economy and Platform Economy - The government plans to deepen the integration of the digital economy with the real economy and promote the innovative development of the platform economy[43][44] - Cross-border e-commerce is identified as a new growth point, with platforms like PDD and Shein expanding in overseas markets[47] Green and Low-Carbon Development - The government will establish green consumption incentives to promote a low-carbon circular economy[68] - Policies supporting green consumption and energy-efficient upgrades are expected to benefit related industries[69] Advanced Manufacturing - The government will accelerate new industrialization, focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development in the manufacturing sector[70] - The semiconductor industry is expected to grow, driven by demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and AI[72] Employment and Social Security - The government will implement a gradual and flexible approach to raising the statutory retirement age to address population aging[5] - The private sector's role in employment is crucial, as it accounts for 80% of urban jobs[13]