宏观点评：进出口数据点评（2024年6月）-贸易顺差持续扩张

Export Performance - In June 2024, China's export value reached $307.85 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points from May[4] - The average annual compound growth rate of exports since 2019 is 7.7%, consistent with the average level from January to May 2024[5] - Exports to the US and EU increased by 6.6% and 4.1%, respectively, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America remained above 15%[7] Import Trends - In June 2024, China's import value fell to $208.81 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, down by 4.1 percentage points from May[8] - The decline in imports is attributed to slow domestic demand recovery and seasonal impacts from flooding[8] - Imports from Japan and ASEAN saw significant declines of -10.6% and -4.8%, respectively, while imports from the US decreased by -1.7%[8] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus in June 2024 expanded significantly to $99.05 billion, an increase of $29.49 billion (42.4%) year-on-year[4] - The total import and export value amounted to $516.66 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%[4] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to peak in the short term, influenced by base effects and potential increases in "export rush" due to upcoming US elections and tariffs[9] - Import growth may also rise temporarily due to base effects, but the overall import momentum will depend on domestic demand recovery[9]