Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, China's new social financing (社融) amounted to 3.3 trillion yuan, slightly above market expectations of 3.22 trillion yuan, but down 928.3 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - New RMB loans totaled 2.13 trillion yuan, matching market expectations but down 920 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - M2 growth rate was 6.2% year-on-year, below the expected 6.7%, while M1 decreased by 5.0%[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - New loans to non-financial enterprises were 1.63 trillion yuan, down 650.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with medium and long-term loans contributing 970 billion yuan, down 623.3 billion yuan[4] - Government bond financing increased by 848.7 billion yuan in June, up 311.6 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting social financing[6] - Corporate deposits increased by 1.0 trillion yuan, significantly down 1.1 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in loan generation[6] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The decline in M2 growth rate expanded by 0.8 percentage points to 6.2%, indicating a widening liquidity gap[6] - Despite a slight decline in financial data, the focus on "quality over quantity" suggests that total changes may not accurately reflect the real demand of the economy[24] - Future social financing and M2 growth rates are expected to gradually recover as the high base effect diminishes and macro policies potentially strengthen in the second half of the year[24]
快评号外：金融数据点评（2024年6月）-淡总量 重质效
Zhao Shang Yin Hang·2024-07-23 06:30