The Battery Mineral Loop

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the battery minerals industry Core Insights - Battery minerals are projected to peak in demand within a decade due to advancements in efficiency, innovation, and circularity, potentially allowing for a transition to a circular economy by 2050 [6][7] - Six solutions are identified to mitigate the need for mineral mining, including new battery chemistries, energy density improvements, recycling, extending battery lifetimes, vehicle efficiency enhancements, and improved mobility efficiency [6][23] - The report emphasizes that the transition from a linear extraction model to a circular loop will yield significant benefits for climate, security, health, and wealth [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. The Battery Mineral Challenge - The battery demand has been growing at an annual rate of 33% for the past three decades, with total battery sales expected to reach 5.5–8 TWh by 2030 and 12 TWh by 2050 [19][21] - The report highlights that batteries will drive 97% of the increase in lithium demand, 78% for nickel, and 80% for cobalt [16][17] 2. Continuing the Current Trend - Continuing current trends will lead to peak virgin battery mineral demand in the mid-2030s, with net demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt expected to peak at different times: lithium in 2038, nickel in 2034, and cobalt in 2028 [7][49] - The report indicates that the demand for lithium in 2030 could be reduced by about 25%, nickel by 40%, and cobalt by 75% compared to a scenario without solutions [49] 3. Accelerating the Trend - An accelerated trend could lead to net-zero battery mineral demand by 2050, with significant reductions in peak demand for lithium and nickel [55][71] - The report suggests that with the implementation of all six solutions, the peak lithium demand could be reduced by 46% and nickel demand by 31% [71] 4. Implications of Meeting the Battery Mineral Challenge - Successfully addressing the battery mineral challenge will transform mining into a one-time effort, with an estimated need to mine approximately 125 million tons of minerals to achieve circular self-sufficiency [78] - The total value of these minerals is estimated at around $1,080 billion at current prices, averaging about $50 billion per year through the mid-2040s [79]