国防军工2024年度中期投资策略：既定目标牵引及军转民启动未来增长

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense industry as "stronger than the market" with a focus on left-side allocation strategies [5][69]. Core Insights - The defense industry is experiencing a short-term demand gap, leading to a decline in profitability, although certain segments like aerospace engines show resilience [2][11]. - Future demand is expected to be driven by established goals and military needs, particularly in aircraft and missile sectors, with a long-term growth outlook [3][21]. - The transition from military to civilian applications presents significant market opportunities, especially in low-altitude economies and large aircraft manufacturing [4][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Demand and Profitability - The defense industry is currently in a weak demand phase, with profitability declining due to order gaps and revenue recognition issues [11][19]. - Aerospace engine sector shows stable growth, with a 5% revenue increase and a 20% net profit increase in Q1 2024 [14]. - Overall, the defense sector's revenue growth rates from 2021 to Q1 2024 are 18.88%, 13.81%, 7.71%, and -2.79% respectively [11]. 2. Future Demand Outlook - The delivery of new-generation fighter jets is expected to increase significantly, supported by domestic and foreign demand [21][22]. - The missile sector is seeing increased demand due to rapid consumption rates driven by military conflicts, enhancing the industry's bargaining power [3][29]. - The naval sector is anticipated to grow, focusing on deep-sea and unmanned equipment, with 2025 projected as a pivotal year for development [3][34]. 3. Military to Civilian Transition - The low-altitude economy is identified as a strategic emerging industry, with significant growth expected in 2024 [4][44]. - The C919 large aircraft has received substantial orders, indicating strong demand and production capacity growth [51][53]. - The commercial space sector is also set for rapid development, with multiple launches expected in the latter half of 2024 [56][58]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in the aerospace engine sector, which is expected to recover first post-demand restoration [5][69]. - For ammunition consumption products, while short-term demand is weak, long-term needs remain stable, making them a preferred choice for investment [71]. - Focus on state-owned enterprises with strong positioning in the "14th Five-Year Plan" sectors is recommended for long-term investment [72][74].