中银证券中银晨会聚焦

Macroeconomic Overview - In June, the national general public budget expenditure reached 28,212.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, with a decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Local public finance expenditure amounted to 24,374.0 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The public finance budget revenue showed weak performance, with June public finance revenue at 19,001.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, narrowing the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund expenditure in June was 7,895.0 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Central government fund expenditure was 26.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, significantly improving by 14.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 7,627.0 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 2.8 percentage points [4] Electronic Industry Insights - The maturity of edge AI applications is expected to lead to a wave of upgrades in AI smartphones and AI PCs, driving hardware upgrades in SoC/CPU, storage, sensors, cooling, and batteries [6][7] - IDC forecasts that AI smartphone sales in China will grow from 0.10 million units in 2023 to 1.50 million units by 2027, while AI PC shipments are expected to increase from approximately 0.03 million units to about 0.43 million units in the same period [7] - The demand for advanced packaging is anticipated to rise due to the expansion of domestic HBM projects, with the global advanced packaging market projected to grow from 4.3 billion USD to 28 billion USD from 2023 to 2029 [24] Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience a "low first, high later" trend in 2024, with performance anticipated to gradually accelerate in the second half of the year [9][10] - The implementation of centralized procurement has led many pharmaceutical products to enter a price stabilization window, with stable growth expected in the pharmaceutical industry due to ongoing demand [10][11] - The market's demand for innovative products remains strong, suggesting that opportunities in innovative drug and medical device development should be closely monitored [9][27]