全球轴承行业龙头，有望充分受益于制造业周期向上

Group 1 - NSK is a leading player in the global bearing industry, holding the largest market share in Japan and the third largest globally, with major clients including Denso, Toyota, Honda, and NIDEC [2][43] - In FY2022, the revenue breakdown was 34% from industrial machinery bearings, 30% from automotive bearings, 7% from ball screws and linear guides, and 8% from automotive transmission-related products [2][44] - The company's overseas business has become a new growth engine, with revenue shares from the Americas and China increasing to 18% and 20% respectively in FY2023, while Japan's share decreased to 34% [2][19] Group 2 - The report anticipates an upward trend in gross margin for FY2024, driven by the transition of NS&C from a subsidiary to an equity-method affiliate, which will exclude low-margin system business from consolidation [2][25] - The manufacturing cycle is expected to improve, benefiting component manufacturers as increased manufacturing activity leads to higher equipment investment and component demand [2][76] - Historical data indicates that manufacturing sentiment typically leads equipment investment demand by 2-3 quarters, while equipment investment leads component demand by about 1 quarter, suggesting a potential increase in component demand in the near future [2][77] Group 3 - The automotive bearing business is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 2%, supported by the transition to electric vehicles, which require fewer bearings but at a higher unit price due to increased performance demands [2][49] - Global automotive production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1-2%, aligning with the growth of the automotive bearing market [2][49] - The report forecasts net profits for NSK of 224 billion yen, 319 billion yen, and 398 billion yen for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, with a target price set at 950 yen and an initial "buy" rating [2][25]