HK & CHINA GAS(HK:00003)2024-07-26 00:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Towngas (3 HK) with a target price of HK$6.39 [3] - The current price is HK$6.30 as of July 25, 2024 [3] - The market capitalization is HK$117.56 billion (US$15.05 billion) [3] Core Views - Towngas has a clear future development strategy with significant breakthroughs in green energy transformation [2] - The company's diversification strategy has been effective, particularly in the mainland urban gas business, which saw an 8% year-on-year growth in 2023 [4] - The green energy transformation has achieved a breakthrough, with the production of SAF and HVO reaching 150,000 tons and 115,000 tons respectively in 2023 [9] - The company's financial performance remains stable, with a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 [10] Business Growth and Market Expansion - Towngas increased its gas projects in mainland China by 5 to 320 in 2023, with the number of users growing by 2.9 million to 40.19 million [4] - The company's water affairs and environmental businesses have shown stable growth, with innovative attempts such as converting kitchen waste into biogas [4] - The company's green methanol production capacity is expected to reach 120,000 tons, contributing approximately HK$100 million in cash net profit [12] Financial Performance - Despite a 7% year-on-year decrease in total revenue in 2023, Towngas achieved an 11% year-on-year increase in core profit [10] - The company's total assets reached HK$162 billion, with net assets of HK$71.1 billion and cash and bank deposits of HK$9 billion [10] - The company plans to reduce debt by HK$10 billion over the next five years, reflecting its focus on optimizing asset structure and improving capital efficiency [11] Capital Expenditure and Investment Strategy - In 2023, Towngas's capital expenditure was HK$10.2 billion, primarily focused on renewable energy projects, especially photovoltaic investments [11] - The company expects to adjust its capital expenditure to HK$7.1 billion in 2024, with a significant reduction in capital expenditure for Hong Kong China Gas Smart Energy to HK$3.3 billion [11] - The company is actively exploring emerging energy fields such as hydrogen energy, including strategic cooperation with Citybus Group to provide hydrogen refueling station services [12] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts Towngas's main business revenue for FY24-26 to be HK$59.777 billion, HK$62.446 billion, and HK$64.947 billion respectively [13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HK$6.298 billion, HK$6.513 billion, and HK$6.713 billion for the same periods [13] - Based on the DCF model, the target price is expected to be HK$6.39 per share, maintaining the OUTPERFORM rating [13]