Investment Rating - Initiation coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 14.54 [4] Core Investment Thesis - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (SH Pharma) is a leading pharmaceutical distributor in China, with dual engines of pharmaceutical distribution and drug manufacturing [2] - The company achieved RMB 260.3 billion in revenue in 2023, a 12.2% YoY growth, with distribution and industrial revenues of RMB 233.8 billion and RMB 26.3 billion respectively [2] - The pharmaceutical distribution business is expected to benefit from innovative services in the short term and industry consolidation in the long term, with the top 4 players holding a 45.5% market share in 2022 [2] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing business is entering a harvest period, driven by traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) brand revitalization and innovative drug pipelines [3] Pharmaceutical Distribution Business - Short-term growth is driven by innovative services, including a RMB 5 billion+ collaboration with Sanofi and comprehensive lifecycle management services for innovative drugs [2] - Long-term growth is supported by market share gains through organic growth and M&A, with the top 4 players' market share increasing from 37.6% in 2017 to 45.5% in 2022 [2] - The CSO business is expected to see explosive growth in 2024, with Q1 2024 revenue surging 128% YoY to RMB 1.7 billion [24] - The company has a strong logistics network covering 31 provinces and serves over 32,000 medical institutions [23] Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Business - The TCM segment is a key growth driver, with a "big brand + big product" strategy driving a 10.3% YoY revenue growth to RMB 9.82 billion in 2023 [43] - The innovative drug pipeline includes 68 clinical projects, with 3 drugs already launched and 3 more expected to be approved by 2025 [39] - The generic drug segment is expected to face short-term pressure in 2024 but will provide stable cash flow from 2025 onwards [46] Financial Performance and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow at a 9.4% CAGR from FY24 to FY26, reaching RMB 340.4 billion in FY26 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 5.17 billion, RMB 5.67 billion, and RMB 6.28 billion in FY24-26 respectively [4] - The current valuation implies a FY24/FY25 P/E of 7.7x/7.0x [4] Industry Overview - China's pharmaceutical distribution market reached RMB 27.5 trillion in 2022, with a 6.6% CAGR from 2017 to 2022 [6] - The market is characterized by increasing concentration, with the top 4 players' market share rising from 37.6% in 2017 to 45.5% in 2022 [12] - The industry is expected to continue its steady growth, driven by China's aging population and increasing healthcare expenditure [10]
上海医药：中国医药流通龙头，医药商业+医药工业双轮驱动