【NIFD季报】日元汇率有望触底回升 人民币汇率将逐渐企稳——2024Q2人民币汇率

Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2024, with most major currencies depreciating against the dollar, except for the Russian ruble, British pound, and South African rand, which saw slight appreciation [5] - From December 29, 2023, to July 19, 2024, the US dollar index rose from 101.38 to 104.37, an increase of 2.95% [5] - Emerging market currencies, such as the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, Mexican peso, Thai baht, and Indonesian rupiah, depreciated by 14.63%, 12.39%, 6.37%, 5.84%, and 5.15% respectively against the US dollar during the same period [5] - The Chinese yuan depreciated by 2.47% against the US dollar in the first half of 2024 [5] US Dollar Index Analysis - The US dollar index fluctuated between 101 and 106 in the first half of 2024, with three key uncertainties affecting its trajectory: the timing and path of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening exit, geopolitical risks, and the potential impact of the US presidential election [8] - The US economy showed moderate growth with high inflation, with CPI and core CPI growth rates remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, ranging between 3.1% and 3.9% from January to June 2024 [10] - The US presidential election in 2024 adds significant uncertainty, with potential outcomes affecting global risk assets and the dollar index [10] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Red Sea, continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar [10] Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Analysis - The Japanese yen depreciated significantly against the US dollar in the first half of 2024, with the exchange rate falling from 141.03 yen per dollar to 157.50 yen per dollar, a depreciation of 11.68% [12] - The widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan (3.1% to 3.8%) was a major factor behind the yen's depreciation [13] - Japan's economic recovery showed signs of weakness, with IMF revising its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Japan down to 0.7% from 0.9% [15] - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike in the second half of 2024 could lead to a rebound in the yen, with the exchange rate expected to stabilize between 135-145 yen per dollar by the end of 2024 [16] Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Analysis - The Chinese yuan depreciated by 2.47% against the US dollar from December 29, 2023, to July 19, 2024, while the CFETS currency basket index appreciated by 1.82% during the same period [17] - The widening interest rate differential between the US and China (from 132 basis points to 199 basis points) contributed to capital outflows and yuan depreciation [20] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) used counter-cyclical adjustment factors to stabilize the yuan, with the daily midpoint rate consistently adjusted to prevent excessive depreciation [22] - In the second half of 2024, the yuan is expected to stabilize within the range of 7.00-7.20 against the US dollar, with potential appreciation to 7.10-7.20 by the end of the year [24]