中金：家电及相关：以旧换新补贴出台，大家电预期扭转

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which is expected to stabilize and boost domestic demand [5][11]. Core Insights - The central government has introduced a subsidy policy for replacing old home appliances, allocating approximately 150 billion CNY for this initiative, which includes support for various appliance categories such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [5][6]. - The report highlights that the current demand for home appliances is primarily driven by replacement needs, with significant potential for upgrading older models in the market [13][19]. - Historical data from previous subsidy policies (2009-2013) shows that such initiatives significantly boosted sales and market penetration, particularly in rural areas [19][22]. Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The central government has issued a notification to support large-scale equipment updates and the "old-for-new" program, with a total subsidy scale of around 150 billion CNY for various categories, including home appliances [5][6]. - Local governments have also begun to implement their own subsidy policies to encourage consumers to replace old appliances [9][10]. Market Demand - The report notes that the demand for home appliances is shifting towards replacement rather than new purchases, with significant potential in categories like refrigerators and washing machines, which have high replacement rates [13][14]. - The penetration rates for major appliances in rural areas have increased significantly due to past subsidy policies, indicating a strong market for replacement demand [25]. Company Initiatives - Major companies like Gree and Midea have announced substantial investments (30 billion CNY and 80 billion CNY respectively) to promote the "old-for-new" program, with varying execution details [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the appliance market is entering a phase dominated by replacement demand, with the real estate sector's influence on appliance sales diminishing [14][16]. Historical Context - A review of past subsidy policies reveals that the 2009-2013 initiatives led to a significant increase in appliance sales, with the total sales amounting to over 300 billion CNY during that period [19][22]. - The report suggests that the current subsidy measures are likely to replicate the success of previous programs, driving growth in the home appliance sector [19][22].