中金：中国宏观热点速评：关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》点评

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting that the new fiscal measures could potentially boost GDP growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points [2][4]. Core Insights - The introduction of a special long-term bond fund of around 300 billion yuan to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement is a significant shift in fiscal policy [2][3]. - The central government's financial support ratio has increased compared to previous measures, indicating a stronger commitment to stimulate the economy [3][4]. - The measures specifically target the automotive and home appliance sectors, which are expected to see substantial policy-driven demand [2][4]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Changes - The new measures allocate approximately 300 billion yuan of special long-term bonds to support equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, which is about 30% of the total issuance for the year [2]. - The report highlights that the National Development and Reform Commission will oversee the allocation of around 148 billion yuan for equipment updates and 150 billion yuan for local government support [2][3]. Support for Specific Sectors - The measures expand the support scope to include energy, old elevators, and key industries focused on energy conservation and safety upgrades [3]. - Increased subsidies for scrapping old vehicles and appliances are expected to enhance consumer spending, with specific increases in subsidy amounts for both automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. Expected Economic Impact - The report estimates that the overall fiscal measures could lead to a GDP growth increase of about 0.3 percentage points, based on a conservative fiscal multiplier of 1 [2][4]. - The automotive sector is projected to see an additional 378,000 vehicles sold due to the enhanced scrapping subsidies, representing about 1.5% of 2023 passenger vehicle sales [4].