中金：汽车及零部件：以旧换新政策加码；看好商用车内需增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent government policies aimed at boosting the replacement of old vehicles, particularly focusing on commercial vehicles and the introduction of subsidies for both passenger and commercial vehicles [1][2]. - The new policies are expected to significantly stimulate demand, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of around 20% in vehicle replacement demand [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of these policies and their impact on vehicle sales and market dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - On July 25, 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued new measures to support the replacement of old operational trucks and enhance subsidies for new energy buses and battery updates [1]. - The updated subsidy standards for scrapping and replacing old vehicles are expected to increase the demand for new vehicles, particularly in the commercial sector [1]. Policy Highlights - The new policies clarify funding channels, increasing the fiscal budget support from 60% to 90% for vehicle replacements [1]. - Specific subsidy amounts for commercial vehicles have been defined, with subsidies ranging from 30,000 to 80,000 CNY per vehicle for scrapping old operational trucks [1][2]. - The report notes that the subsidy for passenger vehicles has also been increased, with amounts rising from 7,000 to 15,000 CNY for scrapping and replacing old vehicles [1]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their expected performance under the new policies: - Heavy-duty trucks: China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and China National Heavy Duty Truck H [1]. - Light-duty trucks: Jiangling Motors and JAC Motors, with a focus on companies like Foton Motor that have diversified offerings [1]. - Buses: Yutong Bus is highlighted as a key player in the bus segment [1]. - Passenger vehicles: Companies like BYD, Changan, and Great Wall Motors are noted for their potential to benefit from the increased replacement demand [1].