美国经济再观察（三）：特朗普的二次冲击：确定的是不确定性

Group 1: Election Dynamics - Trump's support slightly increased after the assassination event, but the long-term impact on the November election remains uncertain due to potential voter forgetfulness[18] - Key swing states like Georgia (16 electoral votes), Arizona (11), and Pennsylvania (20) may ultimately determine the election outcome[30] - Biden's withdrawal from the race shifts age-related concerns to Trump, increasing uncertainty about the election results[41] Group 2: Trump's Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's main policy proposals include domestic tax cuts, increased tariffs, and immigration restrictions, which may pose significant inflation risks for the U.S. economy[5] - The likelihood of Trump imposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese products is considered low; instead, tariffs may be used as negotiation leverage[11] - Trump's focus on reviving manufacturing jobs resonates with blue-collar workers in key swing states, particularly in the Rust Belt[76] Group 3: Voter Sentiment and Polling - Polls indicate that 67% of respondents are tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections, with 70% believing Biden should not seek re-election[41] - In key swing states, Trump leads against both Biden and Harris, with significant margins in most states except for Michigan and Wisconsin, where leads are less than 3%[73] - Economic issues, immigration, and democracy are the top concerns for voters in critical swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona[92]