Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [4][66]. Core Views - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals is a leading pharmaceutical distributor in China, with strong capabilities in both pharmaceutical distribution and manufacturing. The company achieved sales of RMB 260.3 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [63][64]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment is expected to benefit from innovative services and increasing industry concentration, with a projected revenue CAGR of 9.0%-13.7% for leading companies, significantly outpacing the industry average of 6.6% [64][66]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment is anticipated to experience growth driven by traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) rebranding and innovative drugs, with a stable cash flow from generic drugs [65][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Chinese Pharmaceutical Distribution Market - The market size reached RMB 27,516 billion in 2022, with a CAGR of 6.6% from 2017 to 2022. The market is characterized by strong consumer demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading companies [7][8]. - The concentration ratio of the top four companies in the market increased from 37.6% in 2017 to 45.5% in 2022, indicating a strong trend of "the rich getting richer" [11][12]. 2. Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Overview - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals operates in two main segments: pharmaceutical distribution and manufacturing. In 2023, the distribution revenue was RMB 233.8 billion, accounting for 89.8% of total revenue [18][20]. - The company has a robust distribution network covering over 31 provinces and municipalities in China, serving more than 32,000 medical institutions [20]. 3. Pharmaceutical Distribution - The distribution segment is expected to maintain high growth due to innovative services, including a significant partnership with Sanofi worth over RMB 5 billion [21][64]. - The company aims to enhance its market share through both organic growth and acquisitions, leveraging its strong logistics network [24][28]. 4. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The manufacturing segment is set to benefit from the launch of innovative drugs, with three innovative drugs already on the market and 68 projects in clinical stages as of 2023 [65][66]. - The TCM segment is implementing a "Big Brand + Big Product" strategy, which is expected to drive revenue growth through rebranding and multi-channel sales [37][65]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY24-26 are RMB 284.8 billion, RMB 311.6 billion, and RMB 340.4 billion, respectively, indicating a three-year CAGR of 9.4% [66]. - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 14.54, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 6.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [66].
上海医药：首次覆盖：中国医药流通龙头，医药商业+医药工业双轮驱动