2024年度下半年宏观经济与大类资产配置展望：冷眼向洋看世界

Economic Outlook - Global economic recovery is underway, with the U.S. likely to begin interest rate cuts in September 2024[1] - China's economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2024, with one more reserve requirement ratio cut anticipated in the second half of the year[1] - The Eurozone may see a maximum of two interest rate cuts within the year, while Japan continues its monetary policy normalization[1] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset ranking for the second half of 2024 is: Bonds > Commodities > Stocks > Currency[1] - The performance of major asset classes in the first half of 2024 showed U.S. stocks leading, followed by commodities, bonds, currency, and A-shares[100] - The marginal changes in liquidity are expected to significantly influence global asset prices in the second half of the year[100] Market Performance Insights - In the first half of 2024, the Nasdaq index rose by 18.13%, while the S&P 500 increased by 14.48%[109] - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25% and the ChiNext Index down by 10.99%[115] - Major commodities like oil, copper, and gold saw price increases exceeding 10% in the first half of 2024, while some commodities like soybeans and rebar experienced declines over 10%[110] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a neutral to loose liquidity stance, with potential new monetary policy tools being gradually introduced[1] - M0 growth remains strong at 11.7% year-on-year as of June 2024, while M1 has seen a significant decline, dropping to -5.0%[116] - The transition to a price-based monetary policy framework is underway, with a focus on short-term interest rates as the primary tool[92]