中银证券中银晨会聚焦

Core Insights - The global economic recovery is underway, with the US likely to begin interest rate cuts in September 2024, while China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, expecting a GDP growth of 5% for the year [2][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2024 indicates a preference for asset allocation in the order of bonds > commodities > stocks > currency [2][6] - Industrial enterprises in China reported a total profit of 35,110.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with a notable increase in June [3][22] Macroeconomic Overview - The US is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with the Eurozone showing signs of recovery and Japan continuing its monetary policy normalization [2][6] - China's external demand is supported by recovering markets in Europe and the US, while internal demand remains constrained by insufficient real estate and consumption [2][6] - The manufacturing sector continues to support industrial profitability, with a 5% year-on-year profit growth in the manufacturing industry [3][22] Industrial Performance - The mining sector's profits decreased by 10.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to earlier months, indicating potential recovery [3][22] - The raw materials processing industry contributed positively to industrial profits, with a 1.7 percentage point increase in profit growth, primarily driven by the non-ferrous metal processing sector [3][22] - The report highlights the importance of large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades to address internal demand shortfalls [8][20] Monetary Policy Insights - Recent monetary policy actions include a reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a cut in the 1-year MLF rate, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary stance [5][10] - The new round of deposit rate cuts by major state-owned banks aims to manage savings tendencies and support the banking sector's net interest margin recovery [10][24] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor deposit growth rates, as a further weakening in savings tendencies could impact long-term bond yields [23][24]