每周投资策略

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Major US tech companies provided guidance below expectations, leading to a decline in risk appetite [3] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations have increased, causing Japanese stocks to lead the decline [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to have two more rate cuts this year, with conservative expectations for banking, telecom services, and energy sectors [16][20] Group 2: Eurozone Market Focus - The Eurozone's second-quarter GDP and July CPI will be released this week, with expectations of further rate cuts from the ECB [17][19] - The ECB's current policy rate is restrictive, which helps to suppress labor demand and wage growth, indicating room for further easing [20][45] - The ECB's assessment of inflation trends suggests a stable or declining trajectory, with no reliance on single data points for decision-making [47] Group 3: UK Market Focus - The Bank of England is expected to cut rates soon, with a general market consensus anticipating a 25 basis point cut [26][29] - Recent surveys indicate an increase in institutional investor allocations to UK stocks, driven by low valuations and a stable political outlook [29] - AstraZeneca and Shell are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities in the UK market [33][61] Group 4: Japanese Market Focus - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 10 basis points in upcoming meetings, with a focus on curbing yen depreciation and addressing the cost of living crisis [62][64] - Financial and real estate sectors are expected to benefit from potential rate hikes, with companies like Sekisui House projected to see significant earnings growth [71] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - TotalEnergies is expected to achieve high-end production guidance due to new oil fields coming online, despite challenges in refining margins [52] - Deutsche Telekom is anticipated to have strong free cash flow growth, supported by cost reductions and growth opportunities in underpenetrated markets [24] - AstraZeneca is expected to maintain robust operational and financial performance, with potential for stock buybacks [61]