Spotify(SPOT) 国泰君安证券·2024-07-30 07:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $378.52, maintained from the previous target [23][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Spotify has maintained strong Monthly Active User (MAU) growth despite two price increases in 2024, indicating robust user loyalty. The company aims to enhance profitability through steady growth in premium membership revenue and increased advertising revenue in emerging markets. However, competition from Apple in the streaming music sector poses a potential long-term threat to Spotify's membership revenue growth [25]. - Spotify's gross margin is projected to rise from 24% in Q2 2023 to 29% in Q2 2024, with a net profit turnaround from a loss of €302 million to a profit of €274 million, achieving a net margin of 7%. Premium membership revenue reached €3.351 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year, while advertising revenue contributed €456 million, representing 12% of total revenue but showing significant growth in gross profit contribution [25]. - The report emphasizes the strong pricing power of Spotify, driven by the premium membership segment, while also noting potential cost pressures from content licensing fees and rising R&D expenses due to advancements in artificial intelligence [25]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from €11.727 billion in 2022 to €20.451 billion by 2026, with net profit projected to shift from a loss of €430 million in 2022 to a profit of €1.873 billion in 2026 [54][61]. - The operating profit margin is forecasted to improve from 144.5% in 2022 to 151.1% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from -19.0% in 2022 to 37.8% in 2026 [5][61].