白酒行业：茅台批价深度复盘和供需之辩

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the industry, particularly for Moutai, with a projected price bottom range of 1814-2350 yuan [2][54]. Core Insights - Historical price adjustments of Moutai are influenced by economic cycles and supply-demand imbalances, with significant price corrections observed during downturns [2][17]. - The current adjustment period for Moutai has lasted three years, with a price drop from 3170 yuan to a low of 2110 yuan, marking a 33% decline [2][21]. - The demand for high-end liquor remains resilient despite economic pressures, with Moutai's consumption primarily driven by social and business occasions [40][43]. Summary by Sections Historical Price Review - Moutai's historical price adjustments have been significant, with notable declines during economic downturns, such as a 56% drop in 1989 and a 33% drop from 2021 to 2024 [17][59]. - The report highlights that the current price adjustment is of medium severity compared to historical declines [54][59]. Demand Analysis - The growth of high-income individuals has been a key driver for the high-end liquor market, with the number of high-net-worth individuals increasing at a CAGR of 18.3% from 2008 to 2022, outpacing Moutai's sales growth of 10.3% [37][40]. - Moutai's consumption is primarily for business receptions and gifting, with a distribution of 50% for business, 30% for gifts, and 10% each for banquets and personal consumption [40][43]. Supply Analysis - Moutai's production is limited due to its complex manufacturing process and geographical constraints, leading to a tight supply situation [46]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in available Moutai for sale by 2025, with a CAGR of 4.43% expected from 2024 to 2027 [46][47]. Price Forecast - The report estimates that Moutai's price will stabilize after the current panic selling, with a predicted bottom price range of 1814-2350 yuan based on various assessment methods [54][57]. - The analysis includes comparisons with historical price-to-income ratios and other premium liquor pricing strategies [54][57].