2024年7月政治局会议点评：逆周期调节和改革有望加力加速

Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting expressed a cautious view on the current economic situation, indicating that the economy is "generally stable, with progress amid stability" compared to the more optimistic April meeting[41] - The meeting highlighted insufficient domestic effective demand and the challenges of transitioning between old and new growth drivers[41] Policy Measures - The meeting emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and proposed to implement proactive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies[13] - Specific fiscal measures include accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds, which may support infrastructure investment[15] - The use of approximately 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement was announced[16] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains stable, with expectations for structural monetary policies to be introduced, including potential interest rate cuts and the use of various monetary policy tools[18][77] - The aim is to enhance financial support for the real economy and reduce overall financing costs[18] Investment and Reform - Expected reforms include expanding market access for private investment and eliminating foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector, which could boost investment in the short term[6][64] - The meeting indicated that some reform measures are likely to accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially stimulating economic growth[91] Risk Management - The meeting underscored the importance of risk prevention in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and capital markets, with a focus on enhancing investor confidence and market stability[21][100] - Geopolitical risks and inconsistencies between policies and expectations were noted as potential challenges[6][68]