7月PMI数据点评：高技术产业景气度持续扩张

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI index is at 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from June, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - New orders index for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from June, reflecting weak demand[2] - Production index stands at 50.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from June, indicating a slight contraction in production activities[2] Sector Performance - High-tech industries continue to expand, with new orders in electrical machinery and computer communication equipment remaining above the growth line[1] - Traditional industries, particularly raw material processing, show weak demand, with new orders index below 50%[2] - The inventory index for raw materials is at 47.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while finished goods inventory index is at 47.8%, down 0.5 percentage points[2] Employment and Expectations - Employment index in manufacturing is at 48.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from June, but still below the growth line[2] - Business activity expectations index for manufacturing is at 53.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from June, indicating reduced optimism[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI index is at 50.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from June, with new orders index at 45.7%, a decline of 1.0 percentage points[7] Risks and Recommendations - The report highlights structural challenges in demand, suggesting that domestic demand needs to accelerate to buffer the transition pains between old and new economic drivers[1] - Risks include unexpected resilience in overseas inflation and geopolitical uncertainties[15]