绿色动力：运营利润稳步提升，现金流大幅改善，分红提升可期

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Green Power (601330) with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 7.5 RMB, implying a 30% upside potential [1][7] Core Views - Green Power is a leading waste-to-energy company under the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with stable operating income contributing 77% of total revenue and 91% of gross profit in 2023 [1] - The company's waste-to-energy capacity has reached 40,200 tons/day, with a utilization rate of 95% in H1 2024 and electricity generation of 296 kWh per ton of waste [1] - Cash flow is expected to improve significantly due to reduced capital expenditures and accelerated government subsidies, leading to potential dividend increases [1][9] Operational Performance - Green Power's waste-to-energy capacity has grown by 7,400 tons/day over the past two years, with 36 operational projects and one under construction as of 2023 [19][21] - The company achieved a 95% capacity utilization rate and 296 kWh/ton electricity generation in H1 2024, with 8 heating supply projects generating 42,860 tons of steam in 2023 [21] - Green Power's operating income reached 3,086 million RMB in 2023, accounting for 77% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.5% [25][26] Financial Performance - The company's operating cash flow was 978 million RMB in 2023, with capital expenditures of 689 million RMB and free cash flow of 256 million RMB [30] - Accounts receivable increased to 1,973 million RMB in 2023, with 45% from waste treatment fees, 40% from government subsidies, and 15% from basic electricity fees [34] - Green Power's net profit is expected to grow from 697 million RMB in 2024 to 831 million RMB in 2026, with EPS increasing from 0.50 to 0.60 RMB [45] Dividend Policy - The company's dividend payout ratio increased to 33% in 2023, with plans to introduce a new dividend policy in 2024 [38] - If the dividend payout ratio reaches 50% in 2024, the A-share dividend yield could reach 4.3%, while the H-share dividend yield could reach 10.1% [39][40] Valuation - The report forecasts a 2024 PE ratio of 12x, with a target PE of 15x based on comparable company analysis and expected profit growth [45] - Green Power's valuation is supported by steady profit growth, improved free cash flow, and potential dividend increases [45]