不锈钢日报-市场加注美联储9月降息，沪不锈钢有移仓2410趋势

Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to start the renovation of 54,000 old urban communities in 2024, with 33,000 already initiated in the first half of the year[2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.8 in July, a decrease of 2 percentage points from June, marking the first drop below the neutral line since November 2023[2] - The total inventory of stainless steel in major markets is 1.0655 million tons, down 2.78% week-on-week, with cold-rolled stainless steel inventory at 709,700 tons, down 3.80%[2] Fundamental Analysis - The production cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is approximately 14,050 CNY/ton, with a focus on the price trend of pure nickel[2] - Domestic crude steel production from 43 stainless steel mills decreased month-on-month but showed a slight year-on-year increase, with expectations of increased production in August[2] - Current market conditions indicate a strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels suppressing price increases[2] Trading Logic - Bearish factors include seasonal maintenance at some steel mills and sustained high inventory levels, which limit price increases[2] - Bullish factors include potential price increases for nickel due to losses in nickel-iron enterprises and expectations of reduced stainless steel production following the bankruptcy of Delong Nickel Industry[2] - The market is anticipating a busy trading season in August, coinciding with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[2] Summary - The main contracts are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,800 to 14,200 CNY[2] - Key logic includes ongoing high production and inventory levels of stainless steel, bullish expectations from raw material losses, and the upcoming trading season[2]