粤港澳大湾区经济分析报告（2024年第二季度）：投资和消费放缓，GDP 增速低于全国

Economic Growth Analysis - The GDP growth rate of the Greater Bay Area "9+2" cities in Q2 2024 is approximately 3.6%, slightly above Guangdong's 3.5% but below the national growth rate of 4.7%[2] - The overall GDP growth for the Greater Bay Area in the first half of 2024 is around 4%, slightly higher than Guangdong's 3.9% but lower than the national rate of 5%[2] Industrial Production - Most cities in the Pearl River Delta have industrial production growth rates above 4%, while Guangzhou and Foshan are close to zero growth[3] - Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou, and Zhuhai have industrial value-added growth rates of 12.3%, 11.5%, 10.3%, and 11.1% respectively, significantly exceeding the provincial average of 6.5% and national average of 6.2%[3] Investment Trends - Over half of the cities in the region have entered negative growth for fixed asset investment, with Huizhou experiencing a decline of over 18 percentage points[5] - Fixed asset investment growth rates for Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Guangzhou have decreased from 13%, 17.1%, and 6.5% at the beginning of the year to 9.1%, 6.3%, and 1.2% respectively[5] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth has continued to decline, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen both showing growth rates not exceeding 2%[24] - The overall consumer spending growth in the region is weak, with many cities showing growth rates below the provincial average of 2.1%[24] Foreign Investment - Foreign direct investment in most Pearl River Delta cities has seen significant declines, with Shenzhen's growth rate dropping to -47.8%[18] - However, Zhaoqing has maintained positive foreign investment growth for 24 consecutive months, with rates of 19.5% and 22.8% in April and May 2024 respectively[18] Trade Performance - Guangdong's exports grew by 10.7% and imports by 19.2% in May 2024, both exceeding national averages[28] - Shenzhen's exports increased by 37.2%, accounting for 49.8% of Guangdong's total exports, while Guangzhou's imports have been in negative growth for 13 months[31] Tourism and Real Estate - Hong Kong's tourism is recovering, with visitor numbers reaching approximately 60% of 2019 levels, but retail sales have declined significantly[35] - Macau's tourism and gaming industries are showing stable growth, with gaming revenue increasing by 26% to 177 million MOP in June 2024[47] Future Outlook - The issuance of special bonds is expected to support investment, with a planned issuance of 161.24 billion CNY in Q3 2024[48] - The focus on industrial upgrades and the potential for tourism recovery are seen as key factors for economic stability moving forward[48]