（修订版）Vinamilk：深耕产品与渠道，具备奶源优势的龙头企业

Vietnam Dairy Industry Overview - Vietnam's dairy industry reached $4.24 billion in 2023, growing 6.4% YoY, with sales volume at 1.949 million tons, up 1.5% YoY[1] - Drinking milk accounts for 62% of industry sales, with long-life milk dominating, while pasteurized and low-temperature yogurt penetration remains low[1] - The industry is highly concentrated, with Vinamilk maintaining over 50% market share[1] Vinamilk's Market Position and Strategy - Vinamilk generated 60.4 trillion VND in revenue in 2023, with 16.2% from overseas markets[1] - The company operates over 250 SKUs across liquid milk, yogurt, condensed milk, and milk powder categories[2] - Vinamilk has 15 farms in Vietnam, with 38,000 self-raised cows and over 100,000 cows through partnerships, producing over 400,000 tons of raw milk annually[2] Vietnam's Dairy Consumption and Production - Vietnam's per capita dairy consumption is low at 13.83 kg, similar to China's level in 2007[4] - Vietnam relies on imports for 60% of its fresh milk supply, with 2022 dairy imports totaling $1.25 billion, up 6.4% YoY[5] - The country has 37.9 million dairy cows, producing 1.86 billion liters of fresh milk in 2023, meeting 40% of domestic demand[5] Vinamilk's Financial Performance - Vinamilk's PE ratio is at the 28.7th percentile over the past 10 years, indicating reasonable valuation[2] - The company's ROE of 25.8% in 2023 is significantly higher than peers like Meiji (6.9%), Yili (20.2%), and Mengniu (11.4%)[50] - Vinamilk's gross margin was 40.7% in 2023, with domestic business contributing 41.3% and overseas 37.4%[50] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include exchange rate fluctuations, local policy changes, inflation, market competition, and food safety concerns[53] - Vietnam's dairy industry faces challenges in production technology, feed quality, and professional talent shortages[8] - The market is dominated by a few large players, with Vinamilk, TH True Milk, and international brands like Nestlé and Abbott competing[10]