对7月PMI和高频数据的思考及未来经济展望：经济环比或降中趋稳

Group 1: PMI Overview - The July PMI composite index is 49.4%, a slight decrease from 49.5% in the previous month, but better than the Wind consensus forecast of 49.3%[5] - The seasonally adjusted PMI index for July is also 49.4%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points[16] - The supply sub-index's decline is the main drag on the PMI index, while most other sub-indices remain stable or show improvement[5] Group 2: Industrial Production Insights - July's industrial production is expected to remain stable, supported by steady high-frequency indicators such as coal consumption for power generation and steel production[7] - Infrastructure investment may see a rebound, while exports are expected to maintain resilience, and consumption data could remain stable[7] - The negative output gap in China's economy has widened in Q2, but a recovery trajectory is anticipated in the second half of the year due to new momentum from capital expenditure and policy support[8] Group 3: Sector Performance - In July, large enterprises' PMI rose to 50.5%, while medium and small enterprises saw declines to 49.7% and 46.9%, respectively, indicating a widening performance gap[21] - High-frequency data shows a mixed performance across sectors, with upstream industries like power generation showing improvement, while downstream sectors like real estate sales remain weak[35] - The construction-related high-frequency indicators have improved, suggesting potential acceleration in infrastructure investment[45] Group 4: Price Trends and Risks - The PPI is expected to decline month-on-month, with raw material and finished product price indices both showing a decrease of 1.8 percentage points in July[30] - Risks include potential inconsistencies between policy and expectations, geopolitical tensions, unexpected declines in external demand, and systemic risks in the real estate sector[60]