利好政策频出，对短期楼市起到提振作用，长期仍面临下行压力

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the real estate industry, with a focus on risk prevention and management as the new development paradigm for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The real estate market has seen a series of favorable policies in 2024, which have led to a narrowing of the sales decline in the second quarter, with structural price increases in new homes in major cities [1][6]. - Despite short-term improvements, the industry continues to face significant long-term downward pressures, particularly in terms of new construction and financing [1][5]. - The credit quality within the real estate sector remains differentiated, with ongoing debt repayment pressures and a peak in debt maturities expected in the coming year [10][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - The new focus for the real estate sector in 2024 is on risk prevention and management, with policies aimed at digesting existing inventory and optimizing new supply [3][5]. - Continuous signals of support from central and local governments are expected to stabilize market expectations, but the effectiveness of these policies will need to be monitored [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first half of 2024, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 25% and 19% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline rate has slowed in the second quarter due to favorable policies [6][8]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities increased by 1.5% year-on-year as of June 2024, indicating a structural price increase despite ongoing declines in second-hand housing prices [8][9]. Debt Pressure and Credit Quality - The bond market for the real estate sector has not improved significantly, with a total bond issuance of 219.96 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 17.76% year-on-year [10][12]. - The number of bonds in default has significantly decreased, indicating effective control over credit risks, particularly for state-owned enterprises [15][16]. Spread Analysis - Since 2023, the average credit spread in the real estate sector has narrowed, with private enterprises experiencing higher spreads compared to state-owned enterprises [17][19]. - The average credit spread for AAA-rated enterprises has shown a downward trend, while the spreads for AA+ and AA-rated enterprises have exhibited more volatility [19][20].