2024年A股中期策略：转型期的红利重估与行业方向

Group 1: Cycle Positioning - The current economic environment is characterized by a long-term depression phase of the fifth Kondratieff wave, with a transition from old to new production capacity suppressing capital expenditure intensity [7] - The inventory cycle is flattening, with weak internal and external resonance in the replenishment phase. Domestic inventory has shown signs of bottoming since the second half of 2023, but the recovery momentum is relatively weak [7][12] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a gradual convergence of internal and external demand, with domestic recovery expected to be slow but steady [12][13] Group 2: A-Share Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, A-share performance was influenced by policy expectations, with significant advantages for dividend assets. The market experienced volatility due to weak domestic demand recovery and regulatory pressures [19] - The second half of 2024 is anticipated to present structural opportunities as the market transitions, with domestic capital expected to dominate A-share investments [19] - The macroeconomic policy's effectiveness will be crucial for market performance in the second half, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the upcoming elections [19] Group 3: Industry Configurations - The long-term low-interest rate environment supports a dividend strategy, which is favored for its defensive characteristics amid uncertainties in domestic demand and external factors [7][19] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from systemic investment opportunities driven by AI trends, with significant growth potential in AI-related applications and the semiconductor industry [7][19] - The manufacturing sector is undergoing a transformation as Chinese companies expand production capacity overseas, driven by economic rationality and tariff arbitrage opportunities [7][19] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards a "value for money" and "quality-price ratio" era, prompting a focus on companies that can leverage scale advantages to enhance supply chain efficiency [7][19]