点评报告：下半年出口的韧性与弹性

Group 1: Export Trends - China's export growth in the second half of 2024 may be supported by interest rate differentials and leading export indicators[2] - The main driver of China's current export growth is emerging markets, while recovery in demand from Europe and the US is relatively slow, potentially leading to a lack of elasticity in future export growth[2] - The current export support mainly comes from consumer electronics components, necessitating ongoing attention to the demand situation in the electronics supply chain[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Global manufacturing is gradually recovering from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle, which is expected to support domestic exports in the second half of the year[4] - Recent data from South Korea and Taiwan indicates a trend of improvement in new orders, suggesting continued upward momentum in manufacturing demand[4] - The overall export growth rate is under pressure, but structural aspects show promise, particularly in capital goods and transportation chains[4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include significant changes in global geopolitical situations, unexpected changes in Federal Reserve interest rates, and domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations[4] - The lack of demand sources globally, particularly from developed countries, raises concerns about the sustainability of export growth[15] - The export growth of equipment may decline from high levels due to the absence of terminal demand, particularly in emerging markets[24]