全球流动性风向标系列（十三）：7月美联储FOMC会议点评：美联储政策立场的再平衡

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 5.25-5.50% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the seventh consecutive pause in rate hikes, aligning with market expectations [1] - The language in the rate statement has shifted to a more neutral tone regarding inflation, reflecting increased confidence in the progress towards disinflation due to lower-than-expected inflation data in May and June [1][2] - For the first time in nearly two years, the Fed emphasized its dual mandate of inflation and employment, indicating a more balanced policy stance [1][2] Inflation and Employment Data - The July FOMC statement softened the wording regarding inflation progress, changing from "modest further progress" to "some further progress," and the description of inflation levels shifted from "remain elevated" to "somewhat elevated" [2] - Labor market data is now considered equally important as inflation data, with the Fed expressing a desire to avoid further cooling in the labor market [7] - The unemployment rate has risen above 4.0%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, but overall employment conditions remain relatively healthy [7][6] Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with expectations for a total of three rate cuts by the end of the year [9][12] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 22 is seen as a critical event for potential policy signals from Fed Chair Powell [14] - The current market pricing suggests a total of 150 basis points in rate cuts over the next 12 months, reflecting a belief in a non-typical easing cycle that may depend on economic data rather than a fixed schedule [12][9]