2024年7月中央政治局会议解读：聚焦需求，更加给力

Economic Overview - The meeting acknowledged that China's economy is facing increased external challenges and insufficient domestic demand, emphasizing the need for reform to promote stable growth and risk prevention[2] - GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was reported at 5.0%, aligning with the annual target, but the second quarter saw a decline to 4.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving growth[3] - The focus has shifted to addressing domestic demand, with a particular emphasis on consumption as a key driver for economic stability[4] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policy is set to be more proactive, with a commitment to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and introduce new measures as needed[5] - Fiscal policy remains "active," with a focus on expediting the issuance of special bonds, which saw a cumulative issuance rate of 45.5% from January to July 2024, 21.8 percentage points lower than the five-year average[5] - Monetary policy will maintain a "steady" approach, with an emphasis on reducing financing costs while ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate[6] Key Focus Areas - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with strategies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly among middle and low-income groups, and enhancing service consumption in sectors like tourism and elder care[7] - The development of emerging industries and support for innovative enterprises are highlighted, with a focus on preventing excessive competition in certain sectors[7] - The meeting underscored the importance of stabilizing foreign investment and trade, with measures to improve the business environment and promote new trade dynamics[9] Risk Management - Addressing real estate risks is critical, with policies aimed at managing existing inventory and ensuring housing delivery, as evidenced by a 33% year-on-year decline in housing deliveries among the top 10 developers[9] - Local government debt risks are to be managed through existing debt resolution plans, with an emphasis on enhancing the stability of capital markets[9] - The meeting also stressed the need for effective measures to ensure food security and social stability, alongside a commitment to environmental sustainability[9]