美国7月非农就业点评：劳动力市场放缓但没那么糟

Employment Data - In July 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, significantly below the expected 175,000 and revised previous value of 179,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, higher than both the expected and previous rate of 4.1%[1] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.7%, above expectations and the previous month's 62.6%[1] Wage Growth and Job Sector Analysis - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth slowed to 3.6%, below the expected 3.7% and last month's 3.9%[1] - The service sector and government job additions significantly slowed, with government jobs increasing by only 17,000 compared to the previous month's 43,000 and a 12-month average of 45,000[1] - The goods sector saw an increase in job additions from 11,000 to 24,000, indicating a divergence in sector performance[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The number of temporary layoffs increased by 249,000, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate, which has now increased for four consecutive months[2] - Job openings remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 8.23 million in May to 8.18 million in June, with the job openings to unemployed ratio dropping to approximately 1.2, aligning with 2019 levels[2] - Average weekly hours worked decreased from 34.3 to 34.2, reflecting a slowdown in the labor market[2] Market Outlook - Following the July employment data, the market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut increased to 62%, although the analysis suggests that the labor market slowdown may not be as severe as perceived[2] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in employment data for August, suggesting that the labor market may stabilize[2]