半导体行业跟踪：下游需求推动，2024年全球半导体设备迎来增长

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry [1] Core Views - Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are expected to reach $109 billion in 2024, a 3.4% YoY increase, setting a new record [1] - Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to grow 17% in 2025, reaching $128 billion [1] - Wafer fab equipment sales, including wafer processing, fab facilities, and mask/reticle equipment, are expected to grow 2.8% to $98 billion in 2024 [1] - Driven by AI computing, China's strong equipment spending and investments in DRAM and HBM have led to upward revisions in forecasts [1] - Wafer fab equipment sales are expected to grow 14.7% to $113 billion in 2025 due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications [1] - Backend equipment sector is expected to recover in H2 2024 after two years of contraction [1] - Semiconductor test equipment sales are forecasted to grow 7.4% to $6.7 billion in 2024, while packaging equipment sales are expected to grow 10.0% to $4.4 billion [1] - Backend segment growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with test equipment sales surging 30.3% and packaging equipment sales surging 34.9% [1] - Storage-related capital expenditures are expected to see the most significant growth in 2024 and continue to grow in 2025 [1] - NAND equipment sales are expected to grow 1.5% to $9.35 billion in 2024 and 55.5% to $14.6 billion in 2025 [1] - DRAM equipment sales are expected to grow 24.1% in 2024 and 12.3% in 2025, driven by HBM demand for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration [1] Regional Analysis - Mainland China, Taiwan, and South Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending through 2025 [2] - Mainland China is expected to maintain its leading position due to continuous growth in equipment procurement [2] - AI-driven demand for logic chips and HBM storage is pushing upstream equipment demand higher, benefiting domestic semiconductor equipment companies [2] Key Beneficiaries - Upstream semiconductor equipment companies are expected to experience a prolonged boom cycle due to AI demand and external environmental factors [2] - Key beneficiaries include North Huachuang, AMEC, Piotech, and Saiteng [2]