美国7月非农就业数据点评：失业率上升引发衰退担忧

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.3%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's June forecast of 4%[5][23] - Non-farm payrolls added 114,000 jobs in July, with private sector job growth falling below 100,000[7][34] - The non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment decreased by 915,000 in July, slightly above the levels seen from 2016 to 2019[7][34] Economic Indicators - The job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio stands at 1.2, indicating low demand for jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels[5][6] - The Sahm rule value for July is calculated at 0.4934%, just below the critical threshold of 0.5000%, raising recession concerns[5][9][25] - The PMI employment index has remained below the expansion line since the beginning of 2024, suggesting a cooling labor market[23][25] Wage and Inflation Trends - Wage inflation has decreased, with July's hourly wage growth showing a year-on-year decline of 0.2 percentage points and a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points[8][34] - The average weekly hours worked in July fell to 34.2 hours, indicating a slight reduction in labor demand[8][34] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with over 70% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut[9][34] - The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped below 3.9%, reflecting expectations of more than three rate cuts this year[9][34]