摩根士丹利：三中全会、政治局会议，这是转折点吗？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward risk to the forecasted economic growth of 4.8% for 2024, with a potential decrease of 10-20 basis points [1][3]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is expected to slow down due to the "3D" challenges: debt, demographic structure, and decoupling [1][3]. - Despite policy easing, the real estate market remains sluggish, with significant declines in both new and second-hand home sales, particularly in major cities where second-hand home prices have dropped by approximately 23% [1][4]. - The Third Plenary Session proposed several key policies aimed at promoting high-quality growth, including enhancing systems for technological innovation, developing the digital economy, upgrading the service sector, and modernizing infrastructure [1][5][6]. - Fiscal reforms are being implemented to increase the central government's fiscal power and spending responsibilities, as well as to optimize tax distribution between central and local governments [1][7]. - Land reform initiatives focus on orderly marketization of rural collective operating construction land and optimizing the distribution mechanism of land appreciation income [1][7]. - Social welfare reforms aim to provide basic public services to migrant workers based on their place of residence rather than their birthplace, and to improve the nationwide social insurance service system [1][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for 2024/25 indicates a slowdown in growth primarily due to the "3D" challenges, with a projected GDP growth of 4.8% and a GDP deflator index expected to decline by -0.3% [1][3]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to be low despite policy easing, with significant declines in housing sales across multiple cities, particularly a 23% drop in second-hand home prices in six major cities [1][4]. Policy Initiatives - The Third Plenary Session introduced important policy measures to promote high-quality growth, including enhancing systems for technological innovation and ensuring supply chain resilience [1][5][6]. - Fiscal reforms aim to increase the central government's fiscal authority and improve tax distribution mechanisms [1][7]. Land and Social Welfare Reforms - Land reform efforts focus on the marketization of rural land and optimizing land appreciation income distribution [1][7]. - Social welfare reforms are designed to provide equitable public services to migrant workers and enhance the social insurance system [1][8].