供需双弱，钢企盈利仍承压——钢铁行业研究周报

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak supply and demand trend in the steel market, leading to a decline in steel prices and profitability for major steel enterprises [3][5]. Core Insights - The steel market continues to experience weak supply and demand, with raw material prices generally declining, which does not support steel prices. Steel mills are reducing production and prices to deplete inventory, resulting in a decrease in profitability [3][5]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting has provided some confidence in the construction steel market, but the benefits will take time to materialize. Additionally, the anti-dumping investigation by Vietnam on hot-rolled steel plates from China may impact domestic steel exports [4][14]. - The issuance of new bonds in the steel industry has decreased year-on-year, but there are still good profit opportunities in steel bonds due to the overall decline in credit spreads [4][20]. Summary by Sections Steel Market - The steel market is influenced by the transition between old and new national standards for rebar, leading to production cuts and price reductions by steel enterprises. Raw material prices have generally decreased, and the operating rates of steel mills continue to decline [3][5]. - As of this week, the average price of iron ore is 793.6 CNY/ton, down 11.4 CNY/ton from last week. The inventory of iron ore is 150.9445 million tons, a decrease of 1.9194 million tons [5]. - The comprehensive price index for steel has dropped by 1.54 to 97, with major steel products' inventories decreasing by 73,400 tons [5]. News Highlights - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled steel plates from China, which could exacerbate domestic supply and demand contradictions [4][14]. - The Central Political Bureau has emphasized the need to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market, which may provide growth opportunities for construction steel [4][15]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing in July is reported at 49.4, indicating a slight decline, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.2, suggesting stability in the service and construction sectors [4][15]. Bond Market Analysis - This week, one new credit bond was issued in the steel industry, totaling 1.5 billion CNY, a decrease of 500 million CNY from the previous week. The net financing amount is -2.5 billion CNY [4][16]. - As of August 4, 2024, there are 288 existing credit bonds in the steel industry, with a total balance of 364.47 billion CNY. There have been no new defaults or rating adjustments among the existing bonds [4][18]. - The credit spread for steel industry bonds has narrowed, indicating good profit opportunities, with the current spread at 53.83 basis points [4][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strategy of extending duration in bond investments, focusing on high-rated quality central and state-owned enterprise bonds to enhance returns [4][22]. - A credit downshift strategy is recommended, focusing on high-spread steel bonds supported by strong entities, to increase yields [4][24].