中国7月进出口数据点评：出口有韧性，进口显著超预期

Export Performance - In July 2024, China's exports increased by 7.0% year-on-year, lower than the expected 9.5% and the previous value of 8.6%[1] - The trade surplus narrowed to $84.65 billion, below the expected $98.35 billion and the previous value of $99.05 billion[1] - Machinery and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of total exports, with a growth rate of 9.7%, contributing approximately 5.8 percentage points to overall export growth[2] Import Performance - Imports surged by 7.2% year-on-year in July, significantly exceeding the expected 3.2% and rebounding from a previous negative growth of -2.3%[1] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and raw materials, with integrated circuit imports growing by 15.5% and automatic data processing equipment imports expanding by 70.4%[4] - The two-year compound annual growth rate for imports improved from -4.7% to -2.9%[4] Sectoral Insights - Labor-intensive products and raw material exports showed significant declines, with agricultural product growth dropping from 10.1% to 2.0% year-on-year[2] - Automotive exports, including chassis, grew by 13.9%, while ship exports saw a remarkable increase of 54.6%[4] - Exports to the EU rose by 8.0%, while exports to ASEAN countries decreased from 15.7% to 11.4% year-on-year[4] Economic Outlook - The importance of domestic demand has been emphasized, with government initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending and service consumption[2] - The recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and stabilization of the RMB exchange rate may provide additional support for domestic demand[2]